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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-03-28T15:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-03-28T15:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38071/-1
CME Note: This event is visible to the east/northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. This CME is still developing and only early imagery is available as a result. The source is related to an eruption and X1.1 flare from Active Region 14046 starting around 2025-03-28T15:00Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. A subsequent wide opening of field lines can be observed in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery at this time as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-03-31T10:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-03-30T15:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 28/1721 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 1829
Longitude (deg): 15
Latitude (deg): -61
Half-angular width (deg): 50

Notes:

Lead Time: 54.27 hour(s)
Difference: 19.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2025-03-29T04:00Z

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